Short version: 1.9% growth.
Looking deeper at the numbers, the Q2 growth number was primarily fueled not by the much-debated stimulus checks or productivity increased, but by a non-trivial jump in exports…owing to the weakness of the dollar. Not really the sort of thing you can build long-term sustainable growth on, but it’s all there is – as the man says, “The impact of the foreign sector on the economy in the last three quarters has been extraordinary…. without the improvement in the trade balance, the economy clearly would be in a recession.”
Looking at Abramowitz:
- 1.9% GDP growth in Q2.
- Eight-year incumbent of one party…
- …whose aggregate approval rating is still floating around 30%.
As I said earlier…
Since 1950, every incumbent party that couldn’t deliver at least 2.6% GDP growth in the Q2 of the election year gets beaten, and since 1960, the party of every incumbent whose approval rating is below 45% has lost.
So that’s the baseline. Remember this going forward, because it will inform a lot of what happens next.