As promised

Pretty much every single rumor spot-on. The only real eye-opener was the move to a 64-bit processor in the A7 and the addition of the M7 “motion co-processor” – other than that, the rumor blogosphere pretty much hit it out of the park. The days of surprise and “one more thing” have gone by the boards, not least because of a supply chain to China that leaks like an incontinent Fox News viewer.

Thoughts:

* Apple will get slaughtered in the press, because the things I mentioned above are the only things nobody knew.  Hell, we could extrapolate price points and ship dates from the moment the announcement was made.  People want amazing new magical surprises and are taxing Apple for not pulling a rabbit out of a hat (or more likely, a big-screen TV or smart watch or Google Glass competitor).

* The fingerprint thing could easily be dismissed as a gimmick, but if it actually works, it will be very attractive to businesses who want to enforce handset security on users who would rather die than put a passcode on their phones.  I’m willing to give Apple the benefit of the doubt on being able to take a gimmick and make it non-gimmicky.

* The iPhone 5C is plainly meant to shore up some of that lower-end market where Android has gotten fat and sassy, whether abroad or in the prepaid space.  It’s an attractive enough phone, but the story will be whether the unsubsidized price is $400 or below.  If it’s not, it’s the same sort of pricing decision as the Moto X, which I have my doubts about.

* Speaking of, Apple now joins the Moto X and Microkia/Nokiasoft on the “colorful polycarbonate” bandwagon. Nokia had a snarky tweet about this, which might have a little more cut to it if there were ever going to be another Nokia-branded smartphone, but garish plastic is apparently the new brushed metal.  The premium space is shrinking, as Android turns the consumer smartphone into a commodity product, and it’ll be interesting to see whether Apple can carve a midrange niche instead of relying on the “affordable luxury” market.

* Also speaking of the Moto X, Apple’s A7 processor includes the M7 “motion coprocessor” – in short, a Fitbit in your phone.  Two makes a trend: the next big thing in phones is apparently highly-specialized hardware to do one specific thing while consuming as little power as possible.  In a world where phone battery technology hasn’t progressed beyond “cram a bigger battery in there” for about eight years, this may be the only way to significantly stretch battery life while still allowing always-on sensors to function.

As always, if you have last year’s new iPhone, there’s probably not enough here to justify upgrading.  If you have a phone more than one version behind, you need to run right out and place your order.  The jump from the 4S to the 5S is phenomenal, and I’m positive ‘er indoors will be placing an upgrade order on September 13.

Before we start:

This is everything we more or less expect:

 

1) New iPhone 5S (or similar) – basically the 5 but with a dual-LED flash, a fingerprint scanner, probably a bump in RAM and processing/graphics power and possibly a gold/”champagne” option.

2) New iPhone 5C – basically the guts of a 5 or maybe even a 4S, but with the 1136×640 4-inch display and Lightning connector in any event, and with polycarbonate cases rather than metal/glass, probably in multiple colors.

3) Maybe iPads, maybe Apple TV, but not tremendously likely.

4) At least one of the phones, probably the 5S, to be released in the US on Sept 20 – and iOS 7 to be publicly available Sept 18 or so.

 

Let’s ride.

Yahoo?

Maybe.

Today Yahoo released Yahoo Screens for iOS, a streaming video app that puts all Yahoo’s video in one place for easy access and playback through the phone.  Right now it looks like mostly clips, but between SNL and Comedy Central, they have plenty of attractive stuff right off the jump.  Which makes for a nice app on top of the completely-reengineered Flickr app, and the excellent rebranded Yahoo Sports app (formerly Sportacular), and a best-of-breed Fantasy Football app, and a Yahoo Weather app so good that Apple basically lifted 85% of its UI wholesale for iOS 7, and…

Hm…

Don’t look now, but Yahoo is quietly salting a mine over there in Sunnyvale.  They’re turning out some very good mobile apps, they’ve apparently administered Tumblr with a light touch (and are dogfooding it for their own product blogs, apparently), and they just poached a deputy editor of the New York Times to run Yahoo News.  And for all the hype and opprobrium about the new logo, people are talking about it – and the very clean modern white-and-purple suggests a grown-up company with serious ambitions.

See, Yahoo was Google before Google.  Not just in terms of search, where Yahoo was the search engine from the days of being hosted at akebono.stanford.edu – Yahoo had a meaningful presence in chat, in portals, in all-in-one Internet content like scores and stock quotes and weather.  And in mail, where they were an original part of the iPhone launch and the only provider of actual push-style email. There are plenty of people who are still using a Yahoo email address to this very day.

In short, Yahoo is ideally positioned to be an alternative to Google, because they already have millions of potential users who already have accounts, because they were Yahoo users ten years ago.  All people need is a reason to take a second look, and a lot of people are finding one – whether over Google paranoia, or from intrigue over interesting new phone apps, or just because it looks new and fresh and still has everything you need for fantasy football except a way to keep Victor Cruz from only making catches in the end zone.  They’re still a built-in option for mail and search on every iOS device, and unlike Microsoft or Google, they’ve never competed directly with Apple in anything Apple sells for money…which makes them an ideal partner going forward.

And let’s not forget who’s in charge at Yahoo – the former Google employee number 20, the one who probably wouldn’t mind laundering the title of Queen of Silicon Valley that Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman managed to drag through the mud and taking it for herself.  On present form, you have to think that resurrecting one of the grand old names of the dot-com boom era would get that done – and it looks like she could very well pull that off.  I’d love to see it happen.  We need another superpower.

The priest, the chicken and learned helplessness

This month is my career anniversary. On September 15, 1997, I left behind the world of political science and embarked on a new job adventure in the lucrative and exciting field of high-tech.  That my salary has doubled in the ensuing sixteen years is more a tribute to inflation and how little I was raking in at the beginning.  And the enthusiasm of those early days (in which I commented to some unwitting Iowa undergrads in email that my job was “as simple, easy and rewarding as picking up free money in the street”) has long, long, long since gone by the boards.

Sixteen years, man and boy, as the Cockneys say.  In theory and on paper, I should be halfway to retirement.  But the notion that I’ll get to retire before 60 is risible in the extreme, things being how they are.  That’s another post. This is more about what happened in those sixteen years.  When I started, my company had Ethernet, Token Ring and LocalTalk all in use, and whether you could get onto the Internet or whether your Mac could print was a function of what floor of the building you were on.  There was actually a modem pool so you could connect over the network to a 56K modem and dial into Erols or Heller or whoever was your ISP.* (And I had to do this, because at the time, the firewall blocked IMAP.)  We had Windows for Workgroups, Windows NT 4, Novell-based file and print services (at a time when FAPS wasn’t as giggle-inducing as now), and the phone in my pocket was a Motorola Piper that I couldn’t afford to turn on.

Things have changed a lot.  Apple stopped dying and took over the world in some non-PC markets that didn’t exist back then. Nowadays it’s all Ethernet connection, except when it’s all Wi-Fi.  I literally cannot remember the last time I had to use a model to dial in, but it must’ve been a while, because I don’t remember when I last had a computer with a modem built in.  The vast array of Zip disks, Jaz disks, and even CD-RW went by the boards in favor of USB thumb drives – when physical media was used at all, that is. I can’t remember the last time I had to use a DVD to install software, but extrapolating back I can only assume it was to install OS X 10.6.  Setting up printers remains as annoying and ignominious as task as ever, but the vast majority of my support tasks can be handled remotely.  The landscape of IT support, in short, should be completely transformed.

And yet.

I was having a conversation with my boss, who independently gave voice to something I’d been thinking for quite some time.  Generation X has by and large spent its entire office career working on computers.  Millenials don’t know anything else.  The baby boomers – the last generation to know routine office life without a PC on every desk – are starting to retire.  In theory and on paper, then, IT support should be trending away from “how do I do that” and more exclusively focused on “this doesn’t work,” because the user base as a while should have become more computer-literate and adept at handling the machine.

And yet.  The boss concurred completely: this hasn’t happened.  The new crop of users produces no fewer ridiculous questions, no less fodder for the Twitters and blogs and websites detailing the follies of help desk callers.  So if it hasn’t gotten any better – why the hell not?

My theory was this: as with most things in the tech world, the blame belongs to Microsoft. Windows was a mess until the release of Windows 95 – and then it was a slightly fancier-looking mess.  But all the old DOS problems remained and new and exciting ones were developed; Win98 was a kludge and WinME a disaster area.  Not until Windows 7 were the more robust NT underpinnings available at the consumer level – and by that time, the forced integration of Internet Explorer (as part of Microsoft’s effort to fend off the Netscape challenge) had opened the way to a whole new world of viruses and malware, made worse by the proliferation of peer-to-peer file sharing and high-speed home networks.

In short, Windows kinda sucked.  And it continued to kinda suck. People rebooted every day whether they needed it or not, and some folks prescribed a full OS reinstall every six months just to try to speed things back up.  Entire businesses grew up around consumer IT support – the Dell technician on the other end of a phone line in Hyderabad, the stereotype-bedecked Geek Squad at Best Buy – and people just accepted that the computer did weird things, bad things, performed poorly or oddly, and it was beyond their control.

It’s pre-Enlightenment religion, is what it is. You don’t know why your child is coughing and can’t stand up, you don’t know why the crop is withering brown in the middle of the season, you don’t understand why the sun is suddenly being covered in the middle of the day – and so you run to the village shaman or medicine man or whatever, and he sacrifices a chicken or something, and suddenly the sun comes back out or the kid gets healthy or, more likely, it goes on being shitty…and that’s just the way of the world.

Windows gave the computing public learned helplessness. People just accepted that the computer was beyond their comprehension, and gave up trying to understand or solve it.  Better to let the computer wizard do it, or the computer guru, or the computer magician – even the terminology suggests a primitive tribe throwing itself on the mercy of the supernatural.  And IT departments gladly indulged the peasants.  Maybe out of a need to get more budget, maybe out of a need to feed their own egos, whatever.  Personally, I think they did it because they wanted to guarantee that when sacrifice time came around, the peasants would look upon them as the priests…and not the chickens.

 

 

* I had the good fortune to have used two small business for my Internet access for a continuous stretch of about 13 years: Heller for dialup and Speakeasy for DSL.  Both are outstanding, and dearly missed.

The Overexamined Life

Samsung did what they wanted to do: they got a watch out the door faster than Apple or Google.  Unfortunately, it seems a very Samsung sort of watch: all kinds of features,  a slightly clumsy UI, and a battery that may not make it through the day – and right now, it only works with the two new Samsung devices just announced.  Ultimately I suspect this was launched more for the sake of “FIRSTIES” and not for the sake of an optimal product.  Say what you like, but when Apple ships, the thing will be ready…for what it does.

See, that’s the thing: a watch is going to have to start at the bottom and scale up.  The tablet market wasn’t cracked until Apple chose to scale up the phone OS rather than cram down the desktop OS.  Similarly, someone like Pebble has a much better grip on the smart watch: what do you NEED it to do?  Shoot pictures? Probably not. Hell, you probably don’t even need a color display at this point.  What you DO need is not to charge it every night.  We’re more or less accustomed to that with phones at this point – the days of plugging my SonyEricsson Z520 in twice a week are long past – but to have to do it with a watch, to take it off every night and plug it in?  Pebble sorted that by focusing on battery life – still the most important trick in mobility computing – and for their trouble got a watch that could go for a week, can be worn in the shower (assuming it’s not too hot) and can be charged with a MagSafe-type cable.

Then there’s the other thing: the fitness monitor. Many of my friends have latched onto these, and the wife has started using the FitBit One – pedometer, activity tracker, can even tell whether you were going up stairs.  Easy to quantify and easier to monitor from a phone app.  No reason it couldn’t all be rolled into a watch; after all, the Fitbit Flex or Jawbone Up or Nike FUELBand are all on the wrist.  So there’s that – take your time-and-date and pop your Fitbit on there as well, and there’s your smart watch.  What else do we need?

Well, notifications. Apparently notifications are a big deal, as evinced by the attention given to the power-sipping active notification mechanism of the Moto X.  Presumably any notification you can get on your wrist is one less time you have to pull out the phone, unlock it, open an app or pull down a windowshade panel, all while burning through battery with that big bright screen.  So notification triage, and maybe even the ability to read text messages in full, possibly with some canned replies.  Throw that in there.

Now…each of the Big Two mobile operating systems has its specific party piece.  For Apple, it’s Siri; for Android, it’s Google Now.  Each represents a potentially useful way of interacting with the phone via watch.  With Siri, you do it all via voice.  Talk to the watch, hear the phone speak back via the watch or show you what would be on the phone screen on the watch (which probably mandates a color display or else some rejiggering of the UI).  With Google Now, it’s the constant push of cards to the watch (ditto re: the UI) and the ability to flip through traffic conditions on the way home or weather or flight tracking or what have you.  Each is potentially useful but would require some extra work from the OS side to make it function easily.

That’s the trick: it’s going to be difficult to come up with more than a bare-bones device that isn’t inherently tied to iOS.  Or to Samsung. Or to Motorola, or HTC, or just Android.  Pebble is way ahead of the curve on a genericised interface, but to really get use out of it may entail a bigger commitment to one manufacturer or another.  Which brings us to the Google Now problem generally.

See, I’ve done everything I can to try to make Google Now useful for me, but it doesn’t do much.  Weather report (of varying quality), commute directions (kinda sorta), transit info (when close to a stop), and to be honest not very much more.  Why?  Because I don’t use Gmail for anything. If it doesn’t have your email to mine, Google Now can’t offer you very much in the way of scheduling or prediction or “hey, leave now if you want to make your flight.” And even the notional alternatives (thinking of the slightly-stale Osito here) need to have Gmail access to do much more.

The problem, then, is that if you want the benefits of something like Google Now, you have to commit to Google for your services.  Which is asking a lot (which I’m sure is what Google wants). The “Today” view in iOS 7 will give you a little of this, supposedly, and apps like Donna are already trying to replicate some of the functionality with your calendar by rolling travel and weather and even car service via Uber into the package.  But it’s not all the way there.

Ultimately, the thing is this: at some point the Google Now-like service has to be something that does all its data mining and processing locally on the phone itself. Independent or at least agnostic of service provider, able to get useful info out of your work email without compromising your security in doing so and able to leverage whatever personal email provider you use without relying on Google’s technology.  In a way, that’s already present in iOS – for instance, if you get email with a tracking number from UPS or FedEx and tap on that tracking number, you’ll see “Track Shipment” as an option, irrespective of whence came the email.  Apple Data Detectors – a technology that Apple first rolled out in 1997 then largely ignored until two or three years ago  – can do that right now, already parsing out addresses to be sent to the address book (or soon to Maps) or dates to be sent to the calendar.  So the technology is there and it doesn’t take much to suggest that it could be extended to include things like flight confirmation numbers or  the like.

All of this is a very roundabout way of saying that I fully expect an Apple watch before long, and I expect it to rely on the functionality of iOS 7 to deliver a thin but satisfying slice of data to a glorified wrist-bound FitBit.  And in doing so, obviate the need for the phone itself to do a lot of the heavy lifting that currently makes it difficult if not impossible to use the iPhone itself as your fitness/presence tracker (see: the battery-slaughter of Saga or Human or Moves).  Anything that can be staffed out to something with its own separate battery is good for your phone.

So now we wait.  Every man his own Big Data.  It’s coming.