{"id":303,"date":"2008-08-02T14:09:37","date_gmt":"2008-08-02T14:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/?p=303"},"modified":"2008-08-02T14:09:37","modified_gmt":"2008-08-02T14:09:37","slug":"so_the_q2_gdp_numbers_are_out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/?p=303","title":{"rendered":"So the Q2 GDP numbers are out&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\nShort version: 1.9% growth.\n<\/p>\n<p>\nLooking deeper at the numbers, the Q2 growth number was primarily fueled not by the much-debated stimulus checks or productivity increased, but by a non-trivial jump in exports&#8230;owing to the weakness of the dollar.  Not really the sort of thing you can build long-term sustainable growth on, but it&#8217;s all there is &#8211; as the man <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cepr.net\/index.php\/data-bytes\/gdp-bytes\/soaring-net-exports-lead-to-1.9-percent-growth-in-second-quarter\/\">says<\/a>,  &#8220;The impact of the foreign sector on the economy in the last three quarters has been extraordinary&#8230;. without the improvement in the trade balance, the economy clearly would be in a recession.&#8221;\n<\/p>\n<p>\nLooking at Abramowitz:\n<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cepr.net\/index.php\/data-bytes\/gdp-bytes\/soaring-net-exports-lead-to-1.9-percent-growth-in-second-quarter\/\">1.9% GDP growth<\/a> in Q2.<\/li>\n<li>Eight-year incumbent of one party&#8230;<\/li>\n<li>&#8230;whose<a href=\"http:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/president_bush_job_approval-904.html\"> aggregate approval rating<\/a> is still floating around 30%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nAs I said <a href=\"http:\/\/www.jlm.us\/2008\/06\/elaboration_or_another_thousan.html\">earlier<\/a>&#8230;\n<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\nSince 1950, every incumbent party that couldn&#8217;t deliver at least 2.6% GDP growth in the Q2 of the election year gets beaten, and since 1960, the party of every incumbent whose approval rating is below 45% has lost.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\nSo that&#8217;s the baseline.  Remember this going forward, because it will inform a lot of what happens next.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Short version: 1.9% growth. Looking deeper at the numbers, the Q2 growth number was primarily fueled not by the much-debated stimulus checks or productivity increased, but by a non-trivial jump in exports&#8230;owing to the weakness of the dollar. Not really the sort of thing you can build long-term sustainable growth on, but it&#8217;s all there &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/?p=303\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;So the Q2 GDP numbers are out&#8230;&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/303\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}