{"id":693,"date":"2010-05-11T10:19:45","date_gmt":"2010-05-11T10:19:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/?p=693"},"modified":"2010-05-11T10:19:45","modified_gmt":"2010-05-11T10:19:45","slug":"here_we_go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iwasmisinformed.com\/?p=693","title":{"rendered":"Here we go"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gordon Brown is resigning as Prime Minister<\/a>, which means that the Tories and the Lib Dems must have an agreement in place by which David Cameron can form a government. \u00a0So the Sturdy Golden Bear Party (blue + gold SEE WHAT I DID THERE) is ready to ride.<\/p>\n

This is a huge, huge, HUGE gamble by Nick Clegg. \u00a0The Lib Dems have a far stronger left-libertarian streak than Labour, especially since LibDem and Labor come to the left from two different-ish traditions. \u00a0There might be common ground for the LibDems and the Conservatives on some topics, but not on a lot of things that matter – and matter a LOT to LibDem voters. \u00a0Nick is going all in with Old Nick, so to speak, because this is the best chance the LibDems will ever have to force electoral reforms that could get them a more permanent place in government with an elected party commensurate with their percentage of the electorate.<\/p>\n

But.<\/p>\n

If the deal is for a referendum, they are screwed – Labour voters will not want to support a party that sold out to the Thatcherites, and Conservative voters will never support any mechanism that would make the Tories a permanent minority in Parliament (as any real proportional voting system will inevitably force). \u00a0What they need to have is a commitment from a Cameron government to implement some sort of reform right up front, whether Instant Runoff (as seems most likely) or something else.<\/p>\n

So yeah. \u00a0This is a bet – that the future of the LibDem party can be staked on a deal with a Conservative government eager to push in the opposite direction of almost everything the LibDems hold dear. \u00a0I stand by my prediction that we’ll have another election by Christmas – and that by then, Clegg and the Liberal Democrats may well wish they’d forced the Tories to govern as a minority government and held their cards until the next round.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gordon Brown is resigning as Prime Minister, which means that the Tories and the Lib Dems must have an agreement in place by which David Cameron can form a government. \u00a0So the Sturdy Golden Bear Party (blue + gold SEE WHAT I DID THERE) is ready to ride. This is a huge, huge, HUGE gamble … <\/p>\n

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