The Quagmire, part the second

Twelve months ago, everyone knew what to expect from 2008. The abortive 2000 Senate race was going to become the 2008 Presidential race: America’s Mayor vs the Clinton Restoration. Rudy vs Hillary, as inevitable as the dawn, an epic bloodbath that would no doubt lead to another few rungs down the ladder in American political culture. Funny thing happened on the way to the coronation, though…

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Turns out the Giuliani brand didn’t have nearly enough national currency. The notion of a “more moderate Republican” was like catnip to the nitwits who cover politics, but any freshman poli-sci major who made at least a B in Intro to American could have told you it was a fool’s errand. You can’t run for President directly – you have to get through the primaries first, where the party’s most activist voters tend to hold sway, before tacking back to the center. And no pro-gay, pro-choice, seen-in-drag-on-SNL New Yorker has a prayer in a party controlled by a religious Southern faction.

(Bush. Gingrich. DeLay. Lott. Frist. Livingston. McConnell. Armey. Don’t question me.)

Because the aforementioned nitwits couldn’t find their own ass with both hands and a flashlight, though, it completely eluded them that things would work out the same on the other side – that Hillary Clinton would have to run the gauntlet among an activist base repelled by her vote in favor of the Iraq War and increasingly disillusioned on the Clinton legacy. And once Barack Obama got traction in Iowa, he rapidly became the choice of the “Anybody But Hillary” crowd. That plus a hammerlock on the African-American vote will carry you a long way in 2008.

The Obama crew went to school on the Dean insurgency of 2004. They raised ridiculous sums of money online. They organized everywhere. They made sure their kids in Iowa knew how to run a caucus and made sure to get the right people in the fold long before game day. And most of all, they did the most important thing of all: they avoided peaking the year before the actual elections. While the press trumpeted the dreary blather of inevitability, they were salting a mine in the cornfields of the Midwest – and when they sprang the trap, they gave the press something they could not resist: a new and exciting narrative, coupled with a chance to preach the downfall of a Clinton.

That, to me, is still the story of 2008: that in the wake of Super Mega Donkey Collider Bull Moose Gold Medal Infinity Tuesday, the Clinton camp had no plan B. They didn’t even know how the Texas primary/caucus combination worked – and as we found out today, it cost them Texas. All that Team Obama had to do was keep grinding – hit every state, make every stop, take nothing for granted and don’t write off a single delegate – and all of a sudden, he’s winning in places like Idaho and Wyoming and other parts where Democrats didn’t even bother to post, because those states were goners in November. And before long, he’s over the critical threshold where the same proportional allocation that let him catch Clinton made it almost impossible for her to overtake him again. That, to me, is the key endorsement for Obama: he has surrounded himself with people who know how to pick up four yards on every snap of the ball. It’s not fancy, it’s not pretty, it’s not sexy, but those chains just keep moving inexorably down the field.

However, despite the tripartite advantages that the Obama camp trumpets like the morning rooster (the most states, the most votes, and the most delegates), the deal is not yet sealed, because thirty years ago, the Democrats went to great pains to ensure that there could never be a repeat of 1972, when McGovern’s insurgents gamed the system and fought their way to a nomination that led to the worst defeat in American Presidential history. Now there are superdelegates…and the number of those superdelegates far exceeds the margin of victory that either candidate could muster in elected delegates. Even if one candidate wins every single delegate on offer between now and June, it still wouldn’t be enough.

Team Clinton has a tough road ahead. They trail by a tantalizingly small margin, but one they have little hope of effectively closing. They can point to winning big states, but with the exception of Ohio, those big states are almost all lead-pipe locks for the Democrats come November. (Does anyone seriously think that the GOP was going to snake California or New York? Really?) Right now, it’s round 12 of a 15 round fight, and the challenger is ahead on points by at least 8 or 9 on every scorecard. Clinton’s once-inevitable nomination can only now happen if she can land a few knockdown blows, or even a knockout. And the real danger is in a fight that ends with the winner too battered and banged up to win the next fight – you know, the one that actually matters.

It’s not going to get any better, either. The wars of the 90s have finally come to the Democrats: Clinton’s opponents convinced that she is an evil, conniving, dirty-trickster who will say or do anything to get her way; Clinton’s supporters determined to dig in against the slings and arrows of an undeserving and inferior foe receiving aid and comfort from an uncritical media out to see the Clintons hang. The internal rage among the activists is at a level that recalls Gilded Age floor fights, not contemporary primary battles.

After the Potomac primaries, I said that the writing was on the wall and that there was only one seat on the ship, and BHO was in it. The only problem is that a decisive win in Ohio gave the HRC crew just enough staying power to remain on the fringe of viability…and if she maintains her current lead in Pennsylvania, we’ll get to the convention in very nearly a tie, with a legitimate chance of alienating a large chunk of the base and a growing meme that neither of the Democrats has the spunk to put away an opponent. And believe me when I say that the national press wants to have John McCain’s babies bad enough already without the encouragement of a feckless nominee on the other side.

So here we are in the quicksand. No more primaries until April 22. The only way out is if one candidate can land a devastating blow to the other – Obama only needs to knock Clinton down, but Clinton probably needs to knock Obama out. Otherwise, the selection will come down to a near-tie and the loyalties of a few hundred unelected delegates – and the general election is as good as lost.

Yep, that’s my shadow all right. Six more weeks of quagmire.

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