So Monday at 10 AM is the keynote for Apple’s Worldwide Developer Conference. Also known as “Apple Mardi Gras.” This is the only show of the year that is actually operated by Apple – MacWorld is actually an IDG event, and the other stuff like NAB or EDUCAUSE or PRINT ‘0n are their own things – and it’s the only one with no exhibitors, no third-party vendors, nothing but Apple seminars and sessions all week. It also comes with a ridonkulous party Thursday night awash in free food and booze and a live musical act. (The last three years they were the Wallflowers, BT and Ozomatli, in increasing order of energy and entertainment.)
This year, we see the results of a yearlong experiment in which the entire community of MacMacs and Apple fanboys attempts to will a product into existence, i.e. the mythical “3G iPhone.” I admit that the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming – the supply chain empty worldwide, AT&T denying its retail staff leave in July even as they ramp up HSDPA (HSPDA? HPSDA? WTF?) deployment, tons of mysterious boxes being unloaded in Long Beach–
OK, this is where I have to take a detour. God knows I owe my life to Apple – when I crapped out at grad school, the thing that saved me was that in three years of monkeying around with a Power Mac 6100, I had taught myself enough to be taken on as a junior support tech. Literally every penny that has come into my pocket since September 1997 has been due to or as an indirect result of something to do with Apple. So I have a certain amount of gratitude to the Monster of Cupertino for keeping me out of the produce cooler at the Piggly Wiggly.
However, the worst part about being an Apple supporter is…the other Apple supporters. You know – the recalcitrant more-Apple-than-Apple types, the ones who literally cried when they realized there was a command line in OS X and that you couldn’t customize the Apple menu – the ones who would willingly throw out protected memory and preemptive multitasking because they thought the System 6 Multifinder was the pinnacle of UI achievement. The MacMacs (hat tip to the genius of John C. Welch, who is what every Mac administrator should be), who are like the seagulls in Finding Nemo, only with “Mac” instead of “Mine.” You can usually tell them because they look like normal geek fanboy types, only with a rainbow-Apple sticker on the can of paste they’ve been eating.
These are the people who have basically said that there is an iPhone coming that will do foo, bar, and X. Either that or complaining that the iPhone is worthless without foo, bar, and X, and it should have the Newton interface. Foo, bar, and X are usually some combination of 3G, GPS, CDMA and EVDO support, voice recognition with text dictation, full-on text editing, a user-accessible command line, 1080p HD video recording, full VTOL launch capability and the power to transform into Trinity from The Matrix and Princess Leia in the metal bikini, with three-way recreation on their minds.
Now, there is probably something coming out. We know at a minimum that we’re going to get either an announcement or an outright launch of the new 2.0 version of the existing iPhone firmware, incorporating support for 3rd party applications and ActiveSync/Exchange in an enterprise environment (basically throwing down the gauntlet to the Blackberry monolith). Any features beyond that, or new hardware to run them on? Purely speculation at this point. However, I am prepared to bet, and bet big, that at the end of the day Monday, whatever has been announced will still lack foo, bar, or X, and that there will be hot tears and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Here’s the thing. It may sound absurd and contradictory, but it’s the truth: Apple’s output is not and cannot be directed towards satisfying the fanboy market.
Remember 1997? The stock was down around $15. Since then it’s split 8 ways and is bumping around the mid-$180 mark. Every dollar you sunk into AAPL back in the day has jumped by close on two orders of magnitude in the ensuing decade-plus. It didn’t happen because they turned their efforts toward what the geek masses desired, or stuck with satisfying the dead-ender loyalists, because that’s not where the money is.
I’ve had about two dozen phones in the last 5 years. I had a couple of smartphones back when they were new and preposterously expensive, and I tried to do stuff with them, and in a pinch I could have done about 90% of what the iPhone does. Because I was a geek and willing to screw around with that kind of stuff.
But when a friend of mine takes her iPhone up to Canada and shows it to her parents, and they are overcome with amazement and want one almost immediately? That’s where the money is. When you can go outside the expected market and captivate people, that’s when stuff happens. Apple didn’t make the first smartphone, they didn’t make the first MP3 player either – but they made them captivating. And having had my share of MP3 players and phones, I can say with confidence that it’s not all down to trendy design and an aura of hip – it’s because they worked better than what was out there. Everybody remembers the famous Slashdot riff on the first iPod – “No wireless. Less space than a Nomad. Lame.” – but the rest of the world doesn’t care about that shit. They want something that they can use easily without too much effort.
So don’t get too bothered Tuesday morning when the Intarweb tubes are clogged with ranting and raving. Apple, like God or the Cylons, has a plan, and they’re sticking with it. And based on ten years of paper in my pocket, I’m willing to let them play it out.
(As God is my witness, I actually do some work during the day. Honest.)