Guess what? Your boss says the business is losing money. Now this sounds a bit weird, because you know you just signed a huge deal worth millions to the firm, but they’re adamant – everyone’s going to work 9 hour days now, instead of 8, for the same money, and without hiring anyone new to help handle the extra work. And just to make sure you get the message, they’re going to shut down the business until everyone agrees to the new system.
Sounds great, right?
With that, the rundown on what to expect when the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement expires on March 3:
1) The reason we are here is because in May 2008, the owners exercised their option to reopen the CBA. It would have another year to run had they not.
2) This is a lockout, not a strike. The way you can tell is because the NFL would be able to legally replace striking players (e.g. 1987, or “The Replacements”). If the league locks out the players, they are not legally able to field replacements.
3) The core issue is that the league wants an 18-20% giveback on player salaries. This is ostensibly because the league is losing money – but the kind of cash being thrown around by the broadcasters makes this sound a little sketchy (ESPN alone paid $2 billion for Monday Night Football).
4) The league also wants to go to an 18-game schedule. The players have actually agreed to this, contingent on expanding rosters from 53 to 58. The league is offering 54. Look at the roster bloodbath suffered by the Green Bay Packers this year…and add two more regular season games. You’d need to expand rosters to 60 just to stay proportionate – but ownership is not interested in stroking any additional checks.
5) The players have very little leverage. 2/3 of the players make the league minimum, and once the lockout starts, they’re on the hook for their own health insurance (pre-existing conditions, anyone?) – the NFLPA has done what they can to accumulate a strike fund and war chest, but it’s anyone’s guess how long that will last. Meanwhile, the owners have TV money in hand whether the games are aired or not, although the networks may have make-good arrangements based on whether they lose the opportunity to sell advertising in that space.
So the owners will shut the game down, the players will attempt to hang tough, the usual yahoos will start up about how these guys are getting millions of dollars to play a game (without contemplating the guys who are getting billions of dollars to stage the game), and, in all likelihood, the players will limp in and capitulate in time to get in an abbreviated 8-game season a la the 1982 strike. Then again, the Redskins’ first two Super Bowls came in strike years…