Post-mortem: why not, everybody else is.

First off, a clarification: I don’t blame the D’s directly for the current state of affairs. I think it’s an unintended consequence of their desire to shorten the primary season with the Super Tuesday project in the 1980s, but I think the good Doctor (commenting on the last post) hits the nail on the head when she says that the Iowa phenomenon in 2008 is a media creation. Iowa last night, NH tomorrow, and Festivus on February 5 – obviously whoever wins in Iowa will have a great deal of momentum in the popular mind, but why? Because they will get coverage suggesting that.
Two caveats: Sure, Hillary took a torpedo at the waterline last night, but unlike some candidates (cough*Mitt*cough) she didn’t go all in on the first hand. Her organization is just as strong everywhere else and she still leads nationally, so the suggestion that she has somehow been repudiated and will never be heard from again is, quite frankly, preposterous. Other caveat: Fred Thompson finished 3rd without even bothering to set up an organization in Iowa, and Rudy G. never seriously tried; he put everything into Florida and the 2/5 states.
Actually, let’s look at this. 2000: George W. Bush has triple the record for fundraising and comes into Iowa running the Rove offense of inevitability (think Mitt’s gameplan only successful). No contest. 1996: Dole is the designated heir. No contest. 1992: Tom Harkin, D-IA, is running, so nobody bothers with Iowa. 1998: both eventual nominees finish 3rd in Iowa. 1984: Mondale, the presumptive nominee from the start, wins it. You see where this is going: post hoc, ergo propter hoc. (Catholics, wanna give it a shot?)
But in 2004, Dean had all the momentum, and got tripped up in Iowa by Kerry – and then skewered by the media for doing so. Iowa finished him off and Kerry ran the rest of the way on the resulting momentum in a short schedule. Like generals, the press is always covering the last war.
And this helps McCain. A LOT. The party rank and file may not go for him, but the media ADORES John McCain. This will help him a lot going into NH, which he won in 2000 if you remember – and then it’s just a question of whether the GOP rank and file will accept him as the “STOP HUCKABEE” candidate. It won’t be Mitt; if he can’t win Iowa he’s cooked down South where the Baptists rule. Giuliani might still pull it on name recognition, but his steady sinking spell doesn’t inspire confidence. Hell, Fred Thompson might catch fire if only he showed any interest in actually running, but I don’t see it happening.
Meanwhile, look for the media to try to fit everything into the defined narrative: with Obama and Huckabee finishing a solid 1, the whole “change in Washington” is now the storyline. They might run for the “comeback kid” angle, which they love, and it would help McCain immensely, but whether they can overcome their hatred of Hillary long enough to make her the comeback story her husband was is open to debate.
(an aside: I don’t think the media really grasps how much the hardcore D’s really do not like Hillary Clinton. Among the kinds of people who actually vote in Democratic primaries, she’s polling above the clap but below lima beans. There are a lot of reasons for this – largely stemming from the Parliamentization of American politics and a little bit of revisionist history in certain quarters – but she was never as inevitable as the media wanted her to be. If she manages to win through, she’ll earn it, but as much as they’d like to think so inside I-495, the Presidency is not something bestowed on you by that slobbering tool Russert and the rest of the Sabbath Gasbags.)