DEM: Obama closes the gap, but never manages to overtake Clinton, who in turn never quite manages to pull away. Popular enthusiasm for Obama carries almost all the way to the convention, but it’s not enough to get over the top, and the superdelegates while not decisive make it look a lot less close than it was.
REP: Huckabee does a lot better than expected down South – not enough to remain viable, but enough to get the second seat on the starship as McCain’s VP choice. The usual suspects on the right make all the predictable noises about how neither of them could carry Reagan’s pet chimp, but once they have a Clinton to campaign against, they dutifully fall in line – and with a sympathetic media narrative already in place, coupled with a lack of turnout among once-enthused Obama supporters, ride to a narrow but decisive win in November.
I don’t know a single person, conservative or liberal, Republican or Democrat, who actually LIKES this scenario, but that’s what I got. I’m not wild about it myself, and I’d be happy to be wrong, especially since I don’t have any cash on it.