Consequences

So Apple blew the roof out again. Over a billion dollars profit in fiscal Q3, another record, and that with the iPhone basically gone from the channel down the stretch as the ramp up to the 3G began. And with that announcement…the stock drops 10% in after-hours trading.

Well, the usual talk is “the guidance was below analysts’ predictions.” Thing is, this has been the case for eight of the last nine quarters. Eight of nine. And in all but one case, the guidance was more than 9% under the analyst prediction. And every time, three months later, the results have beaten the guidance and the analysts.

Normally this is where I make my sardonic comment about stock traders having the attention span of a goldfish, and rue the fact that I could have sold all my shares Thursday and bought them back today and increased my holdings 15%, knowing the stock will be back up to scratch in four to six weeks. But instead, I’m bothered by something else…

How can people be wrong, all the time, about everything, and still be taken seriously?

Seriously, when a blogger is wrong, big !-ing deal. Hell, when a blogger is right, big !-ing deal, and I say that as someone whose track record is pretty damn good if I say so myself. But how can people be paid hundreds of thousands of dollars on television, in magazines, in newspapers, on financial channels and “news” channels, get it wrong over and over and fracking over, and still be regarded as worthy of being heard?

Thing is, look at the typical newspaper columnist, in the business section or the sports section or the editorial page. In almost every single case, there’s somebody else doing the same thing online, for free, for love of the topic – and who usually has as good if not better qualifications to speak on the topic. The very best writing on college football in the entire country is coming from a guy whose day job is working with international refugee agencies, and it’s not because he’s getting sacks of money and country ham flung at him while he shouts “GIMMEH GIMMEH,” it’s because he cares about college football and is directly answerable to the throngs of commenters who will let him know right quick if he sucks. There’s none of the insulation provided by a big-time publication or a million-dollar salary or a like-minded clique. If you’re full of shit, you’ll know it because nobody will be listening anymore. You can keep wittering away, but to paraphrase the great Butt-Head: “If a tree fell on a band, and they sucked, would anybody care?”

Why on Earth are we still expected to take seriously the thoughts and opinions of people whose batting average wouldn’t get them a shot in short-season A-ball, just because they have a newspaper/TV show/radio slot/back page of the magazine?

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