I was there, you know. January 20, 2001, right out there on the mall. Up close, dressed all in black, because I knew what to expect. Because I’m just that good. You wanna know why? Read on…
Too many people make the mistake of attributing a larger movement solely to the figure at the top of it. Reaganism wasn’t really about Ronald Reagan, it was Ronald Reagan as the genial host of a movement reacting against taxes and what it saw as the cultural excesses of the 70s and the peril created by the perception of American weakness. Reagan was its endorser and the figure that brought it to fruition, but it didn’t spring full-grown from his brow. Similarly, Bill Clinton – though slightly more involved at first – was the front man for the DLC, desperately trying to bring the “New South governor” model national in an attempt to make the Democratic Party nationally viable again. There were others in that spot – Al Gore in 1988, for one – but Clinton just happened to be there when the wheel went round.
George W. Bush was, from day one, an amiable cipher whose role it was to be the front man for the final strike in the Gingrich attempt to nationalize Southern politics. Although Gingrich himself was well out of the picture by then, he had left the cupboard full for the complete takeover of the Republican party by its Southern wing. The real pain of seeing Bush as President was realizing that the last barrier had broken and there was nothing to prevent what was, in essence, the United States of Texas. Which is exactly what we got, in every respect, from the bloviating level of political discourse to the unlimited giveaways to “big bidness” to the constant pants-shitting fear of everything and anything different and the endless bluster to try to puff up in response – and let’s not even get started on the active hostility to anybody smarter than the average pro wrestling audience.
I have detailed this all in excruciating length before, so I won’t go over it again, but consider: the Democrats are generally regarded as the better party on fiscal responsibility. The libertarian West is starting to fall (Nevada and Colorado went blue, Montana is getting there with two Democratic Senators and a Governor who you will hear from again, and Arizona is actually teetering out there if the candidate isn’t from there). Virginia tipped for Obama. The moderately affluent white suburban voter, the linchpin of the Reagan era, is now far more likely to be a Democrat.
There is a case to be made that for most of this century, there were three parties: the Democrats, the Republicans, and the South (and its like-minded followers in Macomb County and elsewhere). Until the Civil Rights era, the Democrats had the South et al. Then Wallace split the South off, and the Republicans picked it up, and they became the majority. And then, the South ate a chunk of the Republicans…and the rest of the Republicans became Democrats. Since 1992, 18 states and the District of Columbia have voted Democrat every time. They represent 248 electoral votes. 13 states have voted Republican every time, and they represent 93 votes. The math, fundamentally, is untenable.
The reason I was drinking right out of the flask there on the Mall eight years ago was because I knew the Southern tail was going to wag the national dog. The reason I’m going to be drinking tomorrow is to celebrate the fact that maybe, just maybe, that tail – for political purposes – is finally going to get bobbed.