Without further delay, my predictions for the coming year…
1) ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE. Nowhere to go but down after the most successful season in Crimson Tide history (14-0, a Heisman winner in Mark Ingram, and the first ever defeat of the despised Texas Longhorns – in Pasadena for the title, no less). Still, that Heisman winner returns, along with Rhodes-hopeful QB Greg McElroy, so you have to feel reasonably good about the offense. Defense is a bigger worry, especially with the loss of Terrence “Mount” Cody and all-everything linebacker/assistant defensive coordinator Rolando McClain to that Sunday league. However, Florida is entering year one A.T. (After Tebow), LSU has some major question marks, Tennessee is in shambles…it’s hard to see where the threat is going to come from within the SEC.
PREDICTION: Another conference championship game appearance for certain, although anything else cannot be assumed reliably. Expect at least one upset loss, though probably not to San Jose State or Georgia State (HOW did that game get scheduled? Do they really need to be doing favors for Bill Curry?)
2) VANDERBILT COMMODORES. Nowhere to go but up after a 2-10 season capped by losing the coach two months before the season. Questions at QB (when you have 3 quarterbacks, you REALLY have no quarterbacks) and uncertainty around super sophomore Warren Norman (and Zac Stacy for that matter). Vandy is loaded at tailback and may have a pretty good defensive secondary, but trading the likes of Duke and Rice for Northwestern and Wake isn’t going to make their lives any easier.
PREDICTION: Most first-year coaches at Vandy tend to get lucky somehow; let’s call it 4-8 with at least one quality upset win.
3) CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS. The biggest enigma on the list. Will the real Kevin Riley please stand up? Is anyone ready to be the second running back behind Sugar Shane Vereen? Can anyone rush or defend the pass? Will any kickoffs go for touchbacks? And most importantly, does Jeff Tedford have what it takes to exploit a conference whose power hierarchy has been set on tilt-a-whirl by Jeremiah Masoli and the NCAA? In a world where the Washington Huskies are the trendy pick, Jake Locker is a foregone conclusion as the first choice in the 2011 NFL draft, and that crowd in Palo Alto is selling tickets off their thumping of a team Cal hasn’t beaten in six straight tries, the only thing you can bank on in the Pac-10 this year is that the Cougars of Wazzu aren’t going to the Rose Bowl. Everything else is up for grabs.
PREDICTION: I don’t dare. Could be anything from the Doze Troll to 3-9, depending on the breaks, and the fact that they were consensus voted 7th of 10 makes me wary of anything too definite. However, I will say this with confidence: as goes Riley, so goes this team, especially in the absence of any convincing alternative at QB.
4) WASHINGTON REDSKINS. Let’s see: they’ve nailed down QB solidly for the first time in two decades, they have a non-idiot running the front office, and they have somebody with an IQ above room temperature as head coach. That right there should be worth three wins. However, even if you predict 7-9, it’s hard to look up and down the schedule and figure where the seven will come from when they have to play Green Bay, Chicago and Minnesota out of conference. Their best hope is that Hollywood Jay Cutler starts spraying INTs all over the field, that the wheels finally come off Princess Favre in spectacular fashion…and that Aaron Rodgers will take pity on the cries of “Not in the face!”
PREDICTION: 8-8, based largely on a dream of .500 in the division and the thought that they can’t possibly lose to Detroit, St Louis AND Jacksonville in the same year. Plus a couple of breaks from God to make up for the nightmare decade of Steve Superior, Vinny Cerrato, Jim Zorn and the tragedy of Sean Taylor (RIP 21). I mean, we’re entitled to a little luck at some point…
5) By mid-October, I’ll wish I hadn’t cancelled Fox Soccer Plus.