http://www.abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1063a2BushDefeatsTruman.pdf
The PDF linked above details that the approval rating for George W. Bush has not broken 50%…since January 16, 2005.
Now, for our international readers, those under age 14, or those just too stupid to remember Civics class, the President is sworn in on January 20 following the previous November’s election.
Bush the Younger has managed to spend literally his entire second term under the Seinfeld line. He would probably sell his soul to Ted Kennedy for a shot at “even steven” at this point. Theoretically this shouldn’t even be possible, unless something massively awful happened between November and January, and unless the royal screwing Cal football took from the BCS reflected on the ratings of a Texan President, I can’t think of any reason for the bottom to start falling out then.
And yet he still won. Why is that? The Rove offense, kids, and believe me when I say it’s entirely possible to be under 50% nationally and still win safely. As long as you can’t cut through the mud, you will fail to activate lightly-interested undecideds and you will lose to a better-organized and better-motivated base.
Obama’s going to school in a big way in Pennsylvania. He has the “beleaguered” tag hung around his neck like Apple Computer in 1996. He has a ruthless and implacable foe between him and the general, when he would be going up against the living, breathing proof that the “liberal media” is a myth. Either he brings his alpha game for the final 7 days…or the 2008 Democratic nomination for President becomes the 1986 Democratic nomination for Governor of Alabama: one long, murderous, soul-destroying slog where the winner’s trophy is full of poison at the end. And John McCain looks more and more like Guy Hunt every day.
I can’t let myself care too deeply – which sounds bizarre, I’m sure, but after four years of caring for a living, every living, breathing, painful minute of the day, I just can’t let myself go there anymore – but I’m putting my faith in Obama’s GOTV operation. It’s out-classed Hillary’s at every turn, in every state – it’s one of the reasons that even in the states she’s won, he’s kept the margin narrow and hauled in delegates – and I gotta believe he’s pouring every available body he has into the region. So. One-on-one selling. that’s where my hope is.